NEWSLETTERS

In our last newsletter I took some time to reflect on the macro or big picture regarding money, finance and how the wider world frames the context and limit of our understanding of money energy. I want to continue with a few more macro musings.

If there is a large move in the markets, it should be triggered by some event in the future economic picture. Let’s review some of the big areas that would trigger such a move and see if they have occurred. If they have not, then it leads to a different source than actual events.

As we begin the journey into 2022 I want to invite you to join me in reaffirming and reconnecting to what is at the heart of our mission here at AAG: helping our AAG family define what is valuable and sustaining, and continue the exploration of and encounter with the life-giving energy that is money. Just the easy stuff, right? Well, I would argue that having these ongoing conversations with yourself and with those you love has an infinitely precious rate of return.

You may have noticed a lot of volatility in the markets right now. I think it’s possible to view this volatility as a kind of inflammatory process through which healing and new growth will likely ensue, as well as an eventual stabilization. Here are a few of my thoughts along those lines.

As we look ahead, we are mindful of the lessons, milestones and manifestations of 2020, including the events of these first few weeks of 2021. Having witnessed the swearing in of our 46th President, we wanted to reach out, in the spirit of the moment, and let you know what is inspiring and informing our work at AAG this year. We hope that these opening thoughts will plant the seeds of many fruitful conversations to come.

With everything that is going on right now we recognize that this may be a good time to begin assessing the next cycle in the markets and together with you, to discuss a strategy. We can’t say with any real confidence that we see the entry point yet for new money. However, we do think that this is the beginning of what it will take to have confidence in an entry point.

If this note seems a bit stylistically unpolished, it’s because the thoughts have been pieced together from parts of 4 or 5 separate newsletters we’ve begun and abandoned over the past two weeks.  News, events, observations and assessments of the virus and possible solutions have been changing very rapidly, daily.  As of today, Sunday, May 10th, this is how it seems to us.

There certainly is a lot to digest and adjust to these days.  We are all experiencing the many ways this virus has upended life. Our intention with this note is to provide some commentary on how we see the way forward through this significant disruption in the economy and your investments. 

Today – March 9 – is the tenth anniversary of the crescendo of global panic that marked the bottom of the bear market of 2007-09. It is to us a thing of the most wonderful irony that the world has elected to celebrate this iconic anniversary with – you guessed it – another epic global panic attack.

I think everyone knows that I don’t have a crystal ball, but just in case, I really don’t. The future will emerge out of the intentional will that is placed in the service of bettering our individual and collective lives. What I know, is that human creativity cannot be subdued: there is always a way forward.

I can distill my message down to a short sentence or two.  I’m sure you can anticipate them and even speak them to yourselves before I do.  And I hope you can live in the meaning found there.  But to more extensively assimilate the antidote to the combined force of what the markets and the actual virus are presenting, requires a more extensive description of phenomena currently occupying much of our attention.

Together with Szilvia, I took a ‘New Year’s Day’ walk this afternoon along the cliff overlooking the Pacific here in Capitola. The surf was ‘up’ this afternoon with a Northwesterly swell that was not for the faint of heart.  Indeed, there were warnings in the papers to stay out of the water today. Well, that is like honey to a bee for the experienced surfer. And there they were, many very skilled women and men of all ages, skilled surfers all, catching and riding some very beautifully formed big waves.  The pounding of the surf as it crashed upon the shore added to the power of the moment. And then there was a stillness…the stillness that is there between the ‘sets’ – for waves move in ‘sets’. The waves arrive and the power is unleashed, the surfers catch and ride for as long as it lasts…until again all is still.

As I write this on August 14, 2019, the U.S. market averages are still positive for the year, despite recent ups and downs.  You wouldn’t know it from the financial press commentary.  Some thoughts:

There are several observations, perhaps truisms, that are being demonstrated now relating to economics and financial markets which can help us to better understand much of what is transpiring. 

Warm greetings and a Happy New Year. I trust that your time over the holidays has been both enjoyable and refreshing.

So here we are in the first days of 2019 when a review of the past year allows for a more objective perspective on events. The initial tendency to seek for simple explanations to understand significant events is usually, upon further pondering, over-ruled by the recognition that more likely no one event was really responsible, rather it was a confluence of events. How wonderful is that? Our lives are not simply understood. We have complicated lives that require considered thought for a full appreciation for who we are and why we act.

This is a short note to wish you all a wonderful season of Light, as it is celebrated and observed through many traditions at this time of year.  Of course, we also observe another important cycle and event next week on what we call New Year’s Eve and Day.  There are many descriptions of the significance of these days, each with a facet of an important natural cyclic significance and each informing a meaningful aspect of human experience.